Profit-Change after Bitmain A3 (Batch 2) delivery
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Hi
does anyone have any idea how the profit with the A3 will change when Bitmain delivers the second batch?
The profit is now arround 12000 coins per week... but how will it be arround end of march?
what do you think about it?
kind regards
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Hello,
It depends of the number of units in the batch.
If there are 15000 units, the Hash rate grows up from 11300 TH/s (siastats.info) to about 23500 so the difficulty will grow up the same way so pretty much time 2 and the profit decrease in the same way (divided by 2).
On top of that, you have to take for granted that the reward to mine 1 SC decreases of 143 SC each day.
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I don´t this so. The Hashrate was 20 times more ( from 500 to 10.000 ) since the 21.1.2018 but the Diff ist only 6 Times ( from 1000 to 6000 ) more right now.
And i don`t think BITMAIN will sale the same quantity like the last Batch. So i think the Diff will raise maximal 30% Not more!
Its easy to calculate: X ( Diff Raising ) = 100 (% if they sale the same like the last batch ) x 6 ( times of raising Diff. last time ) / 20 ( Increase times of Hashrate since 21.1.18 ) = 30% of Diff raising. So you have around: 9300 SC per Week.
But i think it will be more than 10000 SC per week. 1200 per day and 9300 per week.
And if the BTC and SC/BTC increse all will be the same right now :-)
Sorry for my poor english.
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This post is deleted!
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Let's do the maths:
DATE::HASHRATE TH/s::DIFFICULTY PH::TIME BLOCK9/1/17::387::243::627 sec
1/10/17::549::850::1549 sec
1/29/18::11482::7448::649 sec
2/5/18::9145:: 6339::693 sec
2/17/18::11970::6788::567 sec
2/27/18::11222::6342::565 secIf tomorow (03/15/18), there are (as many people think) 15000 units in the second batch of A3, the Hashrate grows up to:
11500 (HR today) + 15000 * 0.815TH/s = 23725 TH/s
So to hold on the time between 2 blocks at about 600s, the difficulty grows up to:
600 * 23775 = 14235000 TH = 14235 PH
14235 PH is about 6342 PH (difficulty today) times 2
For example with one A3 before the second batch you earn today about:
Reward 02/28/18: 156245 SC
HASHRATE A3: 815 GH/s = 0.000815 PH/s
Difficulty 02/28/18: 6342 PH
Time block: 600 sec
A3 Profit/day = 156245 SC * 24 H * 3600 S /(6342 PH /0.000815 PH/s) = 1735 SC or about $35/dayWhen the second batch of A3 will be here:
A3 Profit/day = (156245 SC -143 SC * 15 days) * 24 H *3600 S / (14235 PH / 0.000815PH/S) = 763 SC or about $15/dayAnd so on with the other batches (Halong Mining, Obelisk, Bitmain,...)
If the second batch is less than 15000 units, that will be a good news.
If the batch = 5000 units -> diff = 2445 PH -> profit/day = $23/day
If the batch = 10000 units -> diff = 4890 PH -> profit/day = $18/dayPlus Halong (05/01/18) 5000 units -> Diff = Diff before Halong batch + 600 * 5000 units * 3333 GH/s / 1000000 = Diff before Halong batch + 10000 PH
Plus Obelisk (may and june 18) -> B1 (3598 units) and B2 (2600 units)... + 4463 PH
Plus another batch from Bitmain (5000)... +2445 PHSo the difficulty should grow up between 25738 PH and 31187 PH so the rate of growing is between 4 and 5 and the profits will decrease in the same way.
The guys who bought A3 have to pray that the SC goes at least to $0.03 before the end of June or to go to Iceland to continue mining.
And that won't be much better for the others with Obelisk or Halong miners.
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I dont think so. Why is the Diff now not the 10 times like the 10 times HR before last batch?
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It is not a matter of thinking but that's maths...
ex (from siastats.info)
9/1/17
HASHRATE TH/s = 387
Diff PH = 243
Time Block = 627 sec
2/17/18
HASHRATE TH/s = 11970
Diff PH = 6788
Time Block = 567 secTime block is set to 600 sec. That's a constant.
Difficulty is set to get this theoritical time between blocks according to the Hashrate.The connection between hashrate and difficulty is:
Time block = Difficulty / Hashrate with Time block = 600 sec
9/1/17
HASHRATE TH/s = 387
Diff PH = 243
Time Block = 627 sec = 243000 TH (243 PH) / 387 TH/s
2/17/18
HASHRATE TH/s = 11970
Diff PH = 6788
Time Block = 567 sec = 6788000 TH / 11970 TH/sThe hashrate goes from 387 TH/s to 11970TH/s so it's times 31
The difficulty goes from 243 to 6788 so it's times 28
That's pretty much the same number. The difference is because of the adjustment of time block (near 600 sec)The block reward on Jan 1rst 17 was 214884 SC
The block reward on Feb 2nd 18 was 157813 SC
The block reward goes from 214884 to 157813 so it's divided by 1.361 SC was $0.000234 on Jan 1rst 17
1 SC was $0.029746 on Feb 2nd 18
The SC worth goes from $0.000234 to $0.020011 so it's times 85If A3 has been able to mine on Jan 1rst 17 the SC profit/day would have been:
A3 Profit/day = 214884 SC * 24 H * 3600 S /(243 PH /0.000815 PH/s) = 62269 SC or about $15/day (SC at 0.000234) but today with the worth of SC at 0.020011that will be $1246/dayOn Feb 2nd 18 the profit of A3 was:
A3 Profit/day = 157813 SC * 24 H * 3600 S /(6788 PH /0.000815 PH/s) = 1687 SC or about $35/dayOr if I take what I would have earned on Jan 1srt 17 times 1/∆diif times 1/∆reward times ∆SC, I get what I earn on Feb 2nd 18:
$15 * 1/28 * 1/1.36 * 85 = $34 that's what we can earn today (to compare with the previous calculate)
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What Redutr said - Basically it all boils down to how many are in the batch but I'm guessing we will see our return cut by half +-...
Right now, my personal 2 cents is that we all have to just snuggle in and wait n see. This is a long play not a short.
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Yep - Cut by about 1/2 give or take... Gonna be a long ride...hmm
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I will suggest to use siamining.com There is no reason to use Antpool.
With siamining.com you help the sia community and your A3 Gh will be more that 500 with Antpool. Also the Antpool fees are crazy.
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Siamining.com I find to be the best option for the A3... since the second batch shipped the diff has doubled and I am making about half of what I was. I look for other pools to use for all of my Bitmain equipment. I don't like using antpool as I'd rather not give any extra money to bitmain after they flooded the market and screwed us all.
