What will the price of Siacoin be year-end?
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The following is a very approximate (and probably wrong) attempt to gauge the year-end price of Siacoin.
I have made some bold assumptions about network growth, and the estimate should by no means be taken literally, nor as an advice to invest etc.
I did this for fun and to satisfy my own curiosity about certain what-if scenarios.
Assumptions:
20 billion coins by the end of 2016 (fact)
2x redundancy (realistic with moderate network growth)
1 Exabyte total network storage (<2% of Amazon S3 by some estimates)
100% storage utilization (storage utilization should approximate 100% as it is uneconomic to offer storage that is not used).
70% of coin supply used for storage (remaining 30% idling in long-term wallets, speculation, lost coins etc)
Average storage cost is $5/TB/monthIn this scenario, 14 billion Siacoins are used to pay for 1 Exabyte/month.
So, we're asking:
If the price of storage is $5/TB/month (w/redundancy) what will the price of 1 Siacoin be?1 Exabyte == 1,048,576 Terabytes
Total storage cost per month = 1,048,576 Terabytes * $5 = $5,242,880
i.e. ~$5.24 million are spent per month on Sia storage.
Siacoin price is then:
14,000,000,000 / 5,242,880 = 2670.3 SC/USDIf we express this in Bitcoins using today's rate:
1 / 420 / 2670.3 = 0.00000089 BTC/SCThis estimate only takes into account actual usage, and not hype or speculation. Therefore, with the assumptions above it is an estimate of the lower bound of Siacoin's price.
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Sound estimate though I think 1 million TB is a lot to achieve in an year, but maybe it is doable. I'm pretty sure if Sia achieves that kind of user base and popularity, it won't be just sitting at 7 mil marketcap, it should be a lot more than that.
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1 million TB is more than we will be able to hit. But if we did get that high Nebulous would basically have a guaranteed future. I'm guessing the market cap will always be between 100x and 50,00x the amount of money spent on storage per month. I think a good end year goal is 25,000 TB, which should be around $50,000 per month, putting our market cap somewhere between $5 million and $250 million. I'm guessing that it would be in the $30-80 million range if we did manage to hit 25,000 active terabytes by the end of the year.
That's a goal worth fighting for :)
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Right now I'm just using some decent VPS to run nodes and I already began to transfer anything else off the machines and pay for disk size upgrade (super cheap with host I'm using) so I personally will be probably increasing storage offering between 10x and 30x within the week, only offering 25GB per node so far but I actually started getting a huge surge in contract numbers and it's actually starting to make a dent in the 25GB (think it took like 370 contracts before it went over a GB used).
And that's without even investing anything really. So if others did the same we can see very fast increase in total storage, all the VPS I use is 24/7 with 1gbps bandwidth so should achieve very good performance level.
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mind me asking who is the VPS you are with
