Imagining Sia user growth
I believe decentralized storage tech has a lot of potential ahead and I got positions in maidsafe, storj and siacoin.
My largest position is in siacoin, followed by storj and then maidsafe. Maybe it should have been the opposite though lol
I put on my optimistic hat on and imagined Sia network growing to few thousands, which i feel is completely achievable with some press it might get in future once the code is really set right.
I heard the number of users is not more than a hundred right now. If the network manages to get 10,000 users, would that result in proportionate siacoin growth. I like to imagine that user growth will be proportional to siacoin value growth.
If we can achieve 10,000 active users in 6 months, the value could go from 20 sats currently to 2000 sats which would be cool.
Imagine a bit pessimistic case, if siacoin value is proportional to square root of user growth, even then we are looking at 200 sats with 10000 active users. The real question is, when can we achieve that kind of userbase. Hopefully soon when the code improves quite a bit, maybe the completion of Feb roadmap will get Siacoin on to that growth path.
I don't understand the assumption that Siacoin value would be correlated with user base in the first place, beyond some amount of users that would make Siacoin relevant as a cryptocurrency in the first place instead of being exchanged for virtually nothing.
I have considerably more Sia than MaidSAFE numerically, but in terms of market value the Maid is probably several hundred times up.
Right now (as someone who's been involved for 3 whole days now) from my view it seems there are a small handful of obstacles that are fairly simple to address:
- Stable, mostly-functional and at least decently documented GUI client, ideally a few significant plugins in a similar state of readiness as well. If the roadmap ends up accurately predicting reality, that's about end of March-mid April and is just a normal development process and I do like how Sia appears to be focusing on the bigger picture and making meaningful progress where it will have the most impact on a fledgling tech in the long run, rather than crapping out a flashy wallet that ultimately means nothing in isolation to keep everyone buzzing.
It's to the point with coins in general that really slick design and hyperfocus on aesthetics that puts me off almost always because it's always those guys making nice pictures and writing barely any code, and not actively attempting to build the ecosystem up in any real way.
- A good few public awareness campaigns or similar. Sia may not be quite as all-encompassing as MAID or ETH but it works great and has done so for a while from what I can tell. MAID is not really close to that stage and ETH is not quite there either, but has considerably more community involvement and evangelising because it did a damn good job with PR for a spell.
Granted, this could also backfire if tons of awareness is generated and the development speed of the ecosystem and project don't keep up. So it's actually a good thing that it hasn't gotten near the same level of hype right now. But it's something that will need to be addressed once a viable "1.0" is just about here in order for optimal adoption timing to be possible.
Guess that's just two things. Obviously there will be more but those two need to get tackled before the others IMO.
Just my 2 yen.
@genjitsu well said, i quite agree with you. I don't currently hold any sia right now as i was waiting to see if there would be any huge developments on the horizon and the wallet well, it just doesn't work for me. Need a better, more reliable, better documented client/wallet before i will take the plunge. But sia has plenty or room for growth. Is just the rumors of potential backdoor weakness that puts me off.