4. Price of SC on the market

Price of SC on the market

  • A

    hi
    anyone knows why the price of SC is declining in the past couple of weeks?
    What does affect the price and is there any milestone in Sia development that can possibly boost the price?
    please share your thoughts

    0

  • SC is inflationist and there are many many coins supply right now.

    Today there are 32.796 Billions of SC

    At the end of 2018, there will be about 38.659 Billions of SC

    After june 2020, the block reward will be 30000 SC and the inflation will be about 3% every year for the next year (decrease a little from day to day)

    The worth of the market Cap is today = worth od SC in $ x SC supply
    So Market Cap = 32.796 BN x $0.02076 = $0.680BN = $680 Millions

    if the worth of SC remains at 0.02070, the market cap will be $823 Millions at rhe end of 2018.

    If the SIA project works well, the market cap will grow up as many people will buy SC for buying storage and some will invest in SC. By the way, if the Bitcoin grows up the SC should follow.

    The question is what will be the market cap at the end of 2018?

    If the market cap will be (BN = billions):
    $1BN the SC worth will be $1BN / 39.659 BN = $0.0252
    $2BN -> SC = $0.0504
    $5BN -> SC = $0.1261
    $10BN-> SC = $0.2521
    $20BN -> SC = $0.5042
    $50BN -> SC = $1.2607
    ...
    The market cap of Bitcoin is about $180BN today and the market cap of Ethereum is about $85BN.

    It is pretty much sure that the worth of SC will be less than $1 at the end of 2018.

    If the worth of SC is about $0.10 it will be a very good result (market cap ±= $4BN)

    I think the price declining the past days because some people begin to not trust in SC project and sell their SC coins for different reasons:

    The worth of SC is stuck at 2 cent since long time
    The team ask again for funds while the project should be launched right now
    The number of contracts doesn't grow up quickly.
    There are other projects in the same way that seem easier (price and payment in $) and ready to go.

    Wait and see...

    3
  • R

    My guess is a simple one. Just three points:

    1. A3 owners have to pay for electricity they use for mining.
    2. Sia Network still lacks some critical features and thus demand for storage is not rising
    3. The price is high enough for hosts not to need additional coins for putting on stake (collateral).
    1

  • I just want to light the point 1 suggested by reinisp 29 days ago.

    We have to keep in mind that the number of SC mined is pretty much the same between two close dates because the difficulty grows up according to the hashrate even if the hashrate explode.

    Before A3 the total hash rate was about 500 TH/s so one good GPU did 2 GH/s for 150 Watts (https://sia.today/9/best-amd-gpus-hashrate) so there were about 500000/2 = 250000 GPU which mined Siacoin.
    The total power consumption was about 250000 GPU x 150 W = 37.5 MegaWatts

    When the A3 arrived, we can think that all GPU stopped mining immediately. The high electrical consumption didsn’t allow to earn some money against A3 (75watts/GH/s versus 1.6 Watts/GH/s and GPU had to mine much more time to mine 1 SC because of the difficulty increasing).

    The Hashrate when A3 arrived went to about 11900 TH/s. One A3 use about 1275 Watts for mining about 815 GH/s so we can estimate there were about 11900TH/s / 0.815 = 14602 A3. So the total consumption was about 14602 A3 x 1275 W = 18.6 MegaWatts.

    Right now the total hash rate is about 24000 TH/s so there are about 24000 TH/s / 0.815 TH/s = 29447 A3 and the total consumption is right now about 29447 A3 x 1275 Watts = 37.5 MegaWatts

    As we can see, the A3 owners do not need to convert more SC than the GPU owners before A3 comes.

    So the point 1 is not true and the electrical consumption doesn’t impact right now the price of SC.

    0
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