Why SIA Exchange Value Will Not Rise: Analysis



  • The primary reason - there is no reason for it to increase in value.
    Consider the following in Sia Storage Services (as they exist today) :

    • Sia Coin is used to BUY decentralized storage that is advertised to be cheaper than other centralized networks that use the US Dollar. Key word "advertised as cheaper" than other services. Yet Sia is not market ready yet.

    • The host prices on the Sia network MUST remain lower than these other US Dollar based Cloud providers (Amazon, Drop Box) for each TB purchased.

    • The host contract price does not promote a SC extrinsic value increase. Hosts are pricing against centralized and decentralized hosts for the lowest pricing.

    • Sia Contracts are a minimum of 13 weeks long. This is 1/4 of a year long which doesnt really promote circulation and volume demand increases.

    • Unused coins can be forfeited by the renter by cancelling the contract and allowance
      *Renter data can be lost if the renters UI goes down prior to the mid contract renewal- placing demand on re-buying cheaper coins in the exchange

    • Also if speculation of SC price grew hosts could bail to cash out.

    • Host collateral is rumored to be "burned" (not returned to the host- to an undisclosed public address)- also another demand on hosts to rebuy for chepaer coins.

    • The renter can only access their files via the system running the UI. Not really cloud ready yet.

    • Sia has unlimited supply


    Given the service Sia is offering it does have a value though - and that is Decentralization. The hosts are the VALUE. After all, you can store data on a decentralized cloud network, and no one will know how to access your data except you. This is the best way to keep safe data HANDS DOWN. But the price of the coin may not realize any increases because the existing funnels of Sia are moving coins down the drain- forcing buyers to seek the cheapest re-buy of tokens they can find to use this service, instead of circulating the coinage inside the Sia ecosystem in a closed system manner.

    It is my opinion Sia is damaging itself by making open-air comparisons to Amazon and Dropbox. This is due to the fact those entities are not just centralized, but they are also using centralized payment systems that reply on centralized currency like the US Dollar and other centralized fiats. Instead Sia should be decoupled completely from the association of competing against centralized entities altogether- and charge what the the system is providing - SECURITY with Data Redundancy and without the red tape.

    Sure, token prices can increase ( only on a speculative basis) not necessarily on a consumer level who uses and demands lower and secure service on the Sia Network. Also a token price increase does not not equate to the increase in profits for hosts (given the items mentioned earlier). Will Sia realize its true value and re-navigate in time to save itself? Or continue to steer into these other offshoot projects that do not seem to have the consensus of the Sia community?

    Establishing Trust to early adopters (such as myself) is a requirement to fuel the value Sia has, but if the early adopters & users of Sia Services are on shaky ground- where does that leave the speculation of the coin?

    Stay tuned...

    Unofficial User / Tester / Analyst of Sia ( w/Renter and Host experience)

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  • NOTE: This is not an anti Sia post if you understand the interface. I use Sia sir.. and I host and have rented. I may continue in the future.
    The Sia price not going up is actually an ideal thing for the hosts and renters/ users of the services because it provides a low stable SC price. However, for speculators.. much different story (when you understand). If Sia executed the pegged to BTC- well then we can toss this analysis and actually look at a bigger picture and possibilities of things.

    Unofficial User / Tester / Analyst of Sia ( w/Renter and Host experience)

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  • @morsecode: Good write up..

    I agree... In a scenario, where the COIN sia is used to primarily pay for the SERVICE sia any wild swings in value to any fiat currency shoud be avoided - otherwise it can never become for the masses, certainly not for corporate entitiies that must know and budget for storage well in advance as before, with out making fishy arrangement to hedge for currency fluctuations for this service.

    SIA is facing the same issue as all other cryptos; they do not serve any significant purpose as a means for payment. None of them are ideal as a store of value either.. They are all pretty good to serve as nothing more thatn trading objects for speculators..

    Perhaps it would not be a bad idea to have SIA somehow bound to the imaginary currency SDR, that is also the way transportation sector prices stuff?? SDR is very stable since it consists of major currencies averaged. (but that cind of undermines the idea of havin a dedicated token in the SIA ecosystem)



  • @larsfloe It was mentioned in earlier Sia documents that it was to be pegged to Bitcoin. If so- that would work as well and also allow services to be bought with BTC. That kind of thing stabalizes the Sia network, but introduces wild variances in speculative price.. which BTC already has for the most part, but is excellent store of value.

    But BTC peg could also diminish the SC speculative value. But again this would serve hosts to a large degree to make some coin and also operate without wild swings.

    Unofficial User / Tester / Analyst of Sia ( w/Renter and Host experience)

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  • The host prices on the Sia network MUST remain lower than these other US Dollar based Cloud providers (Amazon, Drop Box) for each TB purchased.

    No they don't. They can set whatever price they damn well please.

    Hosts are pricing against centralized and decentralized hosts for the lowest pricing.

    Hosts are pricing to be competitive if they wish to accrue contracts for income. it costs nothing to establish yourself as a host. A host is only bound to operate by the cost of the contract collateral.

    Sia Contracts are a minimum of 13 weeks long. This is 1/4 of a year long which doesnt really promote circulation and volume demand increases.

    "Volume demand increases." You know what happens when demand is increased? The price increases.

    Renter data can be lost if the renters UI goes down prior to the mid contract renewal- placing demand on re-buying cheaper coins in the exchange

    Placing demand.... which causes pricing to go up...

    Also if speculation of SC price grew hosts could bail to cash out.

    Hosts will need to cash out any ways, in order to fund their operating costs. Do you expect servers to just run for free in a datacenter?

    Also "bailing out" would mean a loss of any of their current contracts, which would be detrimental to their income.

    Host collateral is rumored to be "burned"

    "Rumored" No... proof of burn is not "rumored." it's being implemented.

    not returned to the host- to an undisclosed public address)-

    It's disclosed, how do you think they can prove the burn without being able to see the TX?

    also another demand on hosts to rebuy for chepaer coins.

    Again, placing demand... which increases price.

    The renter can only access their files via the system running the UI. Not really cloud ready yet.

    Yea, who's saying it's the perfect ready to go product? The roadmap still has tons of features to add.

    Establishing Trust to early adopters (such as myself) is a requirement to fuel the value Sia has

    No it's not. There is no trust needed. The whole point is the network is trust-less. Hence loss of collateral for breaking a contract. Hence multi node backup. Hence encryption and reed-solomon encoding to ensure not any single node has access to all your data.

    NOTE: This is not an anti Sia post if you understand the interface. I use Sia sir.. and I host and have rented. I may continue in the future.

    You twist your words within the same sentence. "I may continue in the future." For being a supposedly "not an anti-sia post," you riddled it with skepticism and doubt.

    "It is my opinion Sia is damaging itself"

    The hosts are the VALUE

    No, the hosts are the service. The value is in needing the service. The only way to pay for the service is with siacoin. This gives siacoin value.

    --
    SiaMining.com -- Your PPS Sia Pool.
    I'm not affiliated or work on the Sia/Nebulous team.

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  • @xurious well said, it's a shame this Economics 101 comment received a downvote!


  • Global Moderator

    @xurious Jesus Christ, you're good at this.

    My theory, not that anyone is interested. Is that if I'm a big time renter I'm just going to purchase the hardware I need and run a host the size I need to rent ultimately funding and supporting myself and the network. Not storing any of my own data on my own hardware intentionally.

    Make sure you tag me @bryan if you need to me respond.
    Forum Mod. I cannot fix transactions. I can't help with Mac or Linux.

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  • The original post shows the author not technically or economically competent to make such claims. He is deluded by the coin-side of Sia and surely is one of the speculators and not those who are dedicated to build applications upon sia-network and use this very promising technology in their business.

    This part of his "analysis" shows that he never used API:

    Sia Contracts are a minimum of 13 weeks long. This is 1/4 of a year long which doesnt really promote circulation and volume demand increases.

    That is totally wrong. You always set the duration in block-time (how many blocks will your contract persist). I have some contracts set for a month for example ~4320 blocks, and some for 1000 blocks.

    I agree with you on almost anything except the following:
    @xurious said in Why SIA Exchange Value Will Not Rise: Analysis:

    he renter can only access their files via the system running the UI. Not really cloud ready yet.

    Yea, who's saying it's the perfect ready to go product? The roadmap still has tons of features to add.

    In the fact you can access your files over api without UI (let us remember the Next Cloud integration). Im sure more application will use api with 1.3.0 released soon (it is already available on github and there 11 hosts running on it). 1.3.0 Is very significant release. Lets see the roadmap together and try to grasp what those promised features of upcoming release would make possible:

    1. Ability to repair files without having files locally - This is a direct way to re-balance renter's contracts for cheapest contract price.
    2. Simple file sharing - Share files with other sia users. - This is huge. This is a direct way to build cluster applications upon sia storage network with different wallets and the same content. It is not only to share the files between users, it will decrease the risk of loosing your money by distributing them to different wallets on a different virtual machines.
    3. Support for partial downloads. Again, it is huge. This is video/audio streaming use-case. Alone this feature will decrease the network I/O demand for hosts and make it possible to support more renters on one host with the same internet connection. This will make monthly costs of network traffic for sia users drop significantly. Next expected feature would be replacing part of the file, that will provide possibility to make posix layer over your sia backed storage with R/W capabilities.
    4. Renter to begin pruning/replacing low quality hosts. Needless to say that together with feature (1) this will greatly improve quality of the network and increase storage demand.
    5. Ability to recover files from outdated backup of the renter directory. This is simply priceless.

    TL;DR;
    Siacoin price will grow significantly over next 3 month. I would not be surprised if price will grow 10x.

    P.S.: BTW Im a speculator on poloniex (Zebra) as well, some of you may know me. I've predicted sia growth to 300sat in June when it was 59-61 sat (March). Actually this year I'm always underestimating the growing demand for crypto-currencies. I've predicted DASH growth to 100USD this year, - wrong again. It is already over that deapth. It is a bubble. Very similar to dot com bubble in early 2000, though we are in 1995 right now in comparison. The early adoption is already started, but we are 5 years from mass adoption.

    P.P.S.:
    Potentially Sia has a possibility to grow up to 40k sat. However this will not happen very soon (2-3 years time-frame). Or I might underestimate the market again.



  • @pazak @xurious
    The original post does not mention the term for how long the value will not rise. I share the view that the value has no reason (other than speculation) to rise currently or in short term.

    I personally will not use Sia for real things until it is capable recover files using seed. I just expect to be able to recover my data "from the cloud" if someone steals my computer. Period.
    And I will not use Sia commercially (on protected and backed up computers) as long as I can't predict the budget needed at least in siacoins. Period.

    That is my point why the demand (and resulting coin value on exchange) has no reason to rise in short term.



  • @reinisp You touch two very fundamentals. Time and development will cure the first one on the recovery by seed. The fluctuations in price will not go away when meashring in fiat - that is kind of broken by design or feature by design dependant on your views.



  • @reinisp
    it seems you just have to wait for 1.3.0 release which supposedly will be out until end of this month - about 2.5 days left.
    If it will be shifted, - so be it. And you personally can wait till 1.3.2 release where all the features you require already stable.

    My "short-term" is like 2-3 month. Be certain there will be a rise before that. I can't predict how high, but cummulative effect of new release together with rising adoption of sia cloud storage will make it rise very high at the end.

    Sia goes a proper road, - concentrated on one type of smart contracts implemented on chain. In comparison with those mega-golden-bullets like Ethereum, Lisk, Expanse, those have systematic failures of:

    a) underestimating their own complexity (too many 3rd party software involved and too large codebase with huge amount of components) - which makes it impossible to predict or control the risk of failures for network
    b) promoting turing complete language - which also makes it impossible to predict which tokens implemented upon them will cause the problem for the whole network. Beside this, you can not exclude possibility of trojans development for those networks.

    Dedication of Sia developers to their project, them being a one of the largest customer for individual hosters, are very important things as well.



  • @larsfloe
    That's why I say "short term".
    Price fluctuations are normal. Especially for crypto vs fiat. That is not the problem.
    What I need is ability to buy enough coins in advance to rent a somewhat fixed amount of storage for a longer than 6 months period. Currently there is a chance but no guarantee that my set allowance will cover that. I hope that will be covered in near future release.



  • @pazak
    I am operating one of the handful of hosts running 1.3.0.
    From the roadmap only the "Ability to repair files without having the file locally" is implemented (or mentioned?) in 1.3.0.
    Thus I don't expect my fundamental requirements be available in my "short term" of 3 months.

    If there will be a price increase, it will be more speculative than reliable and not representing a storage demand increase.



  • The original post shows the author not technically or economically competent to make such claims

    And this.. is the defining factor here. It's been proven over and over again both on the forums and on slack.

    --
    SiaMining.com -- Your PPS Sia Pool.
    I'm not affiliated or work on the Sia/Nebulous team.

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  • I am really disappointed in SIa . I bought sia so as to make gains when the price increases. what is my good if the price is pegged down? and why compete with centralized storage coy when sia is different and offers greater security. sell the decentralized security and let the market price move. really I will hold a bit before I sell because with a total supply of over 28billion and a business module that want to peg the price down it does not favour speculators like us.



  • Marketing. As so often with any other subject in life not the thing itself but the image we have from the thing unfortunately is more important. "FileCoin" has just had an explosive ICO. And its worth if almost 5 USD before even having a product. For non-speculative thinking this is crazy. How can this be? I'm not too much in the details, but I think, from own experience: the marketing is (unf.) more important than the product when it comes to selling. I'm a fan of the SIA, but i can't even remember well the name, whilst 'filecoin' for some odd reason (i am German) i can remember well, because sia means nothing to me, file, yes, that's a word. The logo is similar, but their logo has a psychological uptrend, while Sia is very asthetic, but with a downtrend. Maybe lots of effort goes into development. I got no clue, but is there not enuff effort in marketing?
    Just saying - respect for ur work.
    Sth. sad: often early developers doin the mud work of development of new ideas and tec get overtaken by latecomers who can just copy and sell similar tec more efficient. I hope this wont be the case with sia.
    I understand that one does not have to be a facebook fan, btu when it comes to marketing a facebook page for Sia really should be a must so it would be easier for the investors to help promote the coin (and thus the service).


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