What will the price of Siacoin be year-end?
The following is a very approximate (and probably wrong) attempt to gauge the year-end price of Siacoin.
I have made some bold assumptions about network growth, and the estimate should by no means be taken literally, nor as an advice to invest etc.
I did this for fun and to satisfy my own curiosity about certain what-if scenarios.
20 billion coins by the end of 2016 (fact)
2x redundancy (realistic with moderate network growth)
1 Exabyte total network storage (<2% of Amazon S3 by some estimates)
100% storage utilization (storage utilization should approximate 100% as it is uneconomic to offer storage that is not used).
70% of coin supply used for storage (remaining 30% idling in long-term wallets, speculation, lost coins etc)
Average storage cost is $5/TB/month
In this scenario, 14 billion Siacoins are used to pay for 1 Exabyte/month.
So, we're asking:
If the price of storage is $5/TB/month (w/redundancy) what will the price of 1 Siacoin be?
1 Exabyte == 1,048,576 Terabytes
Total storage cost per month = 1,048,576 Terabytes * $5 = $5,242,880
i.e. ~$5.24 million are spent per month on Sia storage.
Siacoin price is then:
14,000,000,000 / 5,242,880 = 2670.3 SC/USD
If we express this in Bitcoins using today's rate:
1 / 420 / 2670.3 = 0.00000089 BTC/SC
This estimate only takes into account actual usage, and not hype or speculation. Therefore, with the assumptions above it is an estimate of the lower bound of Siacoin's price.
Sound estimate though I think 1 million TB is a lot to achieve in an year, but maybe it is doable. I'm pretty sure if Sia achieves that kind of user base and popularity, it won't be just sitting at 7 mil marketcap, it should be a lot more than that.
1 million TB is more than we will be able to hit. But if we did get that high Nebulous would basically have a guaranteed future. I'm guessing the market cap will always be between 100x and 50,00x the amount of money spent on storage per month. I think a good end year goal is 25,000 TB, which should be around $50,000 per month, putting our market cap somewhere between $5 million and $250 million. I'm guessing that it would be in the $30-80 million range if we did manage to hit 25,000 active terabytes by the end of the year.
That's a goal worth fighting for :)
Right now I'm just using some decent VPS to run nodes and I already began to transfer anything else off the machines and pay for disk size upgrade (super cheap with host I'm using) so I personally will be probably increasing storage offering between 10x and 30x within the week, only offering 25GB per node so far but I actually started getting a huge surge in contract numbers and it's actually starting to make a dent in the 25GB (think it took like 370 contracts before it went over a GB used).
And that's without even investing anything really. So if others did the same we can see very fast increase in total storage, all the VPS I use is 24/7 with 1gbps bandwidth so should achieve very good performance level.
mind me asking who is the VPS you are with